沈宇航,夏一雪,周亭,刘耀文,刘佳豪

• 1:中国人民警察大学网络舆情治理研究中心
• 2:中国人民警察大学研究生院
• 3:河北省智慧警务信息支援技术重点实验室
• 4:中国传媒大学区域国别传播研究院

摘要(Abstract)：

[目的/意义]针对当前国际认知域博弈态势，本文突破现有研究主要依赖主观经验分析、缺乏历史演化追踪的局限，对该领域的理论谱系进行量化分析，旨在剖析认知域博弈理论的谱系分化与融合规律，预测战略发展趋势。[方法/过程]以认知域博弈相关的外文开源资料等作为数据样本，运用大语言模型对数据进行深度预处理，分别构建LDA2Vec(latent Dirichlet allocation-word2vec)模型与DTM(dynamic topic model)模型，以客观、动态的视角对认知域博弈的理论发展及重心演化进行深度挖掘，并利用逻辑斯谛(Logistic)模型对理论热点主题词进行趋势预测。[结果/结论]在主题演化维度，该领域的理论体系呈现明显的多元融合趋势，策略重心已由单一的信息操控逐步向技术赋能、心理作战与国家政治安全等多维领域拓展；在热度演进维度，核心理论焦点正由传统的选举与网络干预，加速向AI驱动的认知攻防与地缘冲突转移。本研究在此基础上提炼形成认知域博弈理论谱系模型，系统揭示了该领域的协同演进机制，为明晰认知安全演变态势、服务国家战略布局提供理论支撑。

关键词(KeyWords)： 认知域博弈;理论谱系;动态主题模型;趋势预测;Logistic模型

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家社会科学基金项目“认知战条件下舆论生态风险建模与防范机制研究”(项目编号：24BXW059)研究成果之一

作者(Author): 沈宇航,夏一雪,周亭,刘耀文,刘佳豪

DOI: 10.19318/j.cnki.issn.2096-1634.20260125.0003

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