基于PMC指数模型的中国能源政策量化评价Research on Quantitative Evaluation of China's Energy Policy Based on the PMC Index Model
陈庭强,田伟霞,王磊
摘要(Abstract):
[目的/意义]能源安全是国家经济健康发展的基石,而能源政策是能源安全的保障。本文旨在系统把握我国能源政策的演化特征、内部结构一致性及政策实施效能,为优化我国能源政策体系提供理论依据。[方法/过程]首先,对改革开放以来的中央能源政策文本进行挖掘,依据高频词和共现网络分析能源政策的基本特征和演化过程,并构建政策一致性(policy modeling consistency,PMC)指数评价指标体系。其次,对2021—2024年的351项能源政策文本进行量化评价。[结果/结论]研究发现:①我国能源政策历经“供应生产安全—结构调整—绿色低碳转型”三阶段演进,长期聚焦管理、技术研发与能源安全,电力行业始终是政策核心关切领域,愈发聚焦可再生能源利用、储能技术革新和智能化提升,但当前能源风险应对政策存在明显滞后;②等级评价呈现“中间多,两头少”的特征,351项能源政策中6项优秀、204项良好、141项可接受、0项不良,整体表现优异,但有改进空间;③能源政策在政策性质、政策结构和政策视角等维度表现较好,但存在激励措施单薄、公众参与度低、政策范围覆盖不全面等问题。建议构建政策协同机制、丰富激励措施、扩大覆盖范围及加强公众参与等多维度举措,全面提升能源政策科学性与实施效能。
关键词(KeyWords): 能源政策;文本挖掘;文本量化分析;PMC指数
基金项目(Foundation): 国家社会科学基金重大项目“‘双碳’目标下能源稳定与金融安全问题研究”(项目编号:22&ZD122)研究成果之一
作者(Author): 陈庭强,田伟霞,王磊
DOI: 10.19318/j.cnki.issn.2096-1634.20250314.0006
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